STARK SPLIT
A STARK North-South divide appears to be opening up in England over the number of people being admitted to hospital suffering from Covid-19.
Figures show there is still cause for concern over the northern regions while in the South the numbers are levelling off.
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Across London, the South East and the South West, which is home to around half of England’s population of 55million, daily admissions to hospital appear to have now flattened out, having risen in September after a decrease during the summer.
But figures across the North West, North East and Yorkshire still show a worrying trend and a number of local lockdowns are in place to combat a second spike.
The situation is not so clear cut in the Midlands and East of England though.
In the Midlands, hospitalisations rose sharply in September but there are indications that has now peaked.
Hospital admissions appear to be still rising in the East but at a lower level than in the northern areas, the reports.
But even in the worst affected areas, hospital admissions are a third of the levels seen during the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in April.
In the South, that figure drops to around six per cent of the peak figures.
Currently in the North West there is now an average of 107 people admitted to hospital with the virus every, while in the North East that figure is 94 per day.
Neither area shows signs of those numbers slowing.
NORTH-SOUTH DIVIDE
At their peak for each region the figures were around 2,900 and 2,600 per day, respectively.
In London though, where officials have been discussing introducing tougher measures, there are just 34 admissions a day, down from an average of 39 on September 25 and just 4.5 per cent of the level seen during the peak of the crisis in April.
The figures improve even more in the South West where eight people are currently being sent to hospital with the virus each day, representing just six per cent of the peak figure.
The statistics also indicate coronavirus cases seem to rise in most areas that have a local lockdown imposed, raising questions about how effective those measures are in containing regionalised outbreaks.
Professor Neil Ferguson, who was influential in getting the Government to introduce the UK-wide lockdown in March, said though the situation would “probably be worse” if local restrictions were not introduced.
He said the NHS could still become overwhelmed if cases weren’t stopped.
Public Health England (PHE) recently came under fire after it admitted it had messed up a spreadsheet that meant 16,000 positive tests weren’t counted last week.
RATE IN THE SPREAD OF THE VIRUS IS RISING
The rate at which the coronavirus is spreading is now faster than it was in the summer in every region of England, officials have warned.
Here too, the figures show a north-south split with the rate of cases in the North West and North East round eight times higher than in the South West, South East and East of England.
The region with the highest rate is the North West, where there are 136.1 cases for every 100,000 people, compared to the lowest rate in the South East where there are just 16.1 cases per 100,000.
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Prof Ferguson told BBC Radio 4: “We think that infections are probably increasing, doubling every two weeks or so – in some areas faster than that, maybe every seven days – and in other areas slower.”
He added: “We're about 10 times lower in infection levels than we were just before the original lockdown,” but he stressed keeping new infections under wraps is crucial.
“The death rate probably has gone down [since spring], we know how to treat cases better, hospitals are less stressed, we have new drugs.
“But admissions to hospitals, hospital beds occupied with Covid patients, and deaths, are all tracking cases.
“They're at a lower level but they're basically doubling every two weeks and we just cannot have that continue indefinitely.
“The NHS will be overwhelmed again and you can see what's happening in Paris and what's happening in Madrid and measures there.
"It's being driven by hospitals gradually becoming overwhelmed. Over half of ICU beds [there] are now Covid patients and their death numbers are again creeping up inexorably.”
Health Secretary Matt Hancock acknowledged the northern regions, Scotland and Wales were driving the UK’s second wave.
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He told the Commons: “Here in the UK the number of hospital admissions is now at the highest it has been since mid-June.
“Last week the ONS [Office for National Statistics] said that while the rate of increase may be falling, the number of cases is still rising. Yesterday [Sunday] there were 12,594 new positive cases.
“The rise is more localised than the first time round, with cases rising particularly sharply in the North East and North West of England, and parts of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
“Now, more than ever – with winter ahead – we must all remain vigilant and get this virus under control.'
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Figures for Scotland and Wales show they are proportionately worse affected than much of England, with the number of patients in hospital in Wales at 24 per cent of the levels seen during the peak.
Read More on The Sun
Numbers are much smaller in Scotland and Wales, however, and combined they only have 393 patients in hospital – fewer than the Midlands, North East or North West of England.
Scotland's hospital admissions are at approximately 12 per cent of peak levels.
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