Market Analysis

Economic Diary:
Week Commencing 15/12/25

Monday 15 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Retail Sales Retail Sales Chart 2.9% 2.8% 1.3%
House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) House Price Index Month on Month (Nationwide) Chart 0.3%
House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) House Price Index Year on Year (Nationwide) Chart 1.8%
Industrial Production Month on Month   0.2% 0.8% 0.8%
Industrial Production Year on Year Industrial Production Year on Year Chart 1.2% 1.9% 2.0%
House Starts Annualized House Starts Annualized Chart 232.8k 250.0k 254.1k
Housing Starts Housing Starts Chart 1.307Mln 1.320Mln
CPI Boc Core Month on Month CPI Boc Core Month on Month Chart 0.6% -0.1%
CPI Month on Month CPI Month on Month Chart 0.2% 0.1% +0.1%
CPI BoC Core Year on Year CPI BoC Core Year on Year Chart 2.9% +2.9%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 2.2% 2.3% +2.2%
New Home Sales-Units Month on Month New Home Sales-Units Month on Month Chart 0.800Mln 0.709Mln
Consumer Sentiment Consumer Sentiment Chart 12.8%

Tuesday 16 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
Unemployment Rate (ILO) Unemployment Rate (ILO) Chart 5.0% 5.1%
Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year Average Weekly Earnings 3 Month Year on Year Chart 4.8% 4.4%
Claimant Count Unemployment Change Claimant Count Unemployment Change Chart 29.0k
CPI Final Year on Year   1.1% 1.1%
CPI Final Month on Month   -0.2% -0.2%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -0.042Bln EU
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart 19.4Bln EU
ZEW Current Conditions ZEW Current Conditions Chart -78.7 -80.0
ZEW Economic sentiment ZEW Economic sentiment Chart 38.5 38.7
Retail Sales Month on Month   0.2% 0.1%
Retail Sales Ex-Auto Month on Month   0.3% 0.3%
Business Inventories Month on Month Business Inventories Month on Month Chart 0.0% 0.1%
Imports Year on Year Imports Year on Year Chart 0.7% 2.5%
Trade Balance Trade Balance Chart -231.8Bln JP 71.2Bln JP
Exports Year on Year Exports Year on Year Chart 3.6% 4.8%

Wednesday 17 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
RPI Month on Month RPI Month on Month Chart 0.3% 0.0%
PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) PPI Core Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.5%
RPI Year on Year RPI Year on Year Chart 4.3% 4.2%
CPI Year on Year CPI Year on Year Chart 3.6% 3.5%
CPI Month on Month CPI Month on Month Chart 0.4% 0.0%
PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) PPI Core Month on Month (nsa) Chart 0.1%
IFO Business Climate Expectations IFO Business Climate Expectations Chart 90.6 90.5
CPI Final Year on Year CPI Final Year on Year Chart 2.2% 2.2%
CPI Final Month on Month CPI Final Month on Month Chart 0.2% -0.3%
EIA Weekly Crude Oil Stocks   -1.812Mln

Thursday 18 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
BoE Rate Decision BoE Rate Decision Chart 4.00% 3.75%
MPC Vote For Rate Hike   0 0
MPC Vote For Rate Cut   4 5
MPC Vote For Rate Unchanged   5 4
ECB Rate Decision ECB Rate Decision Chart 2.15% 2.15%
CPI Month on Month (sa) CPI Month on Month (sa) Chart 0.3% 0.3%
CPI Year on Year (nsa) CPI Year on Year (nsa) Chart 3.0% 3.0%
Philadelphia Fed Business Index Philadelphia Fed Business Index Chart -1.7 3.2
CPI Overall Nationwide CPI Overall Nationwide Chart 3.0%
CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year CPI Core Nationwide Year on Year Chart 3.0% 3.0%

Friday 19 December

Indicator Previous Expected Actual
GFK Consumer Confidence GFK Consumer Confidence Chart -19 -18
PPI Year on Year PPI Year on Year Chart -1.8% -2.2%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -1.1% 0.4%
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 0.1% 0.1%
Retail Sales Year on Year Retail Sales Year on Year Chart 0.2% 1.0%
GFK Consumer Confidence GFK Consumer Confidence Chart -23.2 -23.2
PPI Month on Month PPI Month on Month Chart 0.0%
Consumer Confidence   95.0 96.0
Personal Income Month on Month Personal Income Month on Month Chart 0.4%
Retail Sales Month on Month Retail Sales Month on Month Chart -0.7% 0.0%
Personal Spending Real Month on Month Personal Spending Real Month on Month Chart 0.0%
PCE Core Price Index Year on Year PCE Core Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.8%
PCE Price Index Month on Month PCE Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.3%
PCE Core Price Index Month on Month PCE Core Price Index Month on Month Chart 0.2%
PCE Price Index Year on Year PCE Price Index Year on Year Chart 2.8%
Univ Michigan Conditions Univ Michigan Conditions Chart 50.7
Dallas Fed PCE Dallas Fed PCE Chart 1.9%
Univ Michigan Sentiment Univ Michigan Sentiment Chart 53.3 53.3
Univ Michigan Expectation Univ Michigan Expectation Chart 55.0
Existing Home Sales Existing Home Sales Chart 4.10Mln 4.15Mln

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